Who Won the Election : चुनाव कौन जीता, The dust has settled. The ink has dried. The final tally is in. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the largest democratic exercise in human history, has concluded, delivering a verdict that is both decisive and profoundly transformative. For weeks, the air was thick with anticipation, speculation, and a cacophony of exit polls. But when the results finally cascaded onto our screens on June 4th, they painted a picture far more complex, nuanced, and politically seismic than most had predicted.

Who Won the Election : चुनाव कौन जीता

The question on everyone’s lips—”चुनाव 2024 कौन जीता?” (Who won the 2024 elections?)—has a simple, one-word answer: Democracy.

But to truly understand the magnitude of what has transpired, we must move beyond the binary of win and loss. This was not a simple coronation nor a straightforward rejection. It was a recalibration, a renegotiation of the social contract between the people and their rulers. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has indeed emerged as the single largest party and will form the government for a historic third consecutive term. However, the story of 2024 is not just about the BJP’s victory, but about the nature of that victory. For the first time since 2014, the party has failed to secure a majority on its own, falling short of the magical 272-mark and ending up with 240 seats.

The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), though bruised and battered, has staged a remarkable comeback, pushing the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to a final tally of 293 seats, while the INDIA bloc itself has crossed 230 seats. This result has fundamentally altered India’s political landscape, ushering in an era of coalition politics that many believed was a relic of the past.

This blog post is a deep dive into the anatomy of this electoral earthquake. We will dissect the results, state by state, explore the underlying factors that shaped the verdict, analyze the key players, and ponder the profound implications for India’s future.

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The Final Scorecard: A Nation Divided in Verdict, United in Participation

Before we delve into the “why,” let’s first establish the “what.” The final numbers tell a story of their own.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA): 293 Seats

• Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 240 Seats
• Key Allies:
  • Telugu Desam Party (TDP) (Andhra Pradesh): 16 Seats
  • Janata Dal (United) JD(U): 12 Seats
  • Shiv Sena (Shinde Faction) (Maharashtra): 7 Seats
  • Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (Bihar): 5 Seats
  • Other Allies: 13 Seats

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA): 232 Seats

• Indian National Congress (INC): 99 Seats
• Samajwadi Party (SP) (Uttar Pradesh): 37 Seats
• All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) (West Bengal): 29 Seats
• Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) (Tamil Nadu): 22 Seats
• Other Allies: 45 Seats

Others: 17 Seats

This scorecard immediately reveals several critical headlines:

1. The BJP’s Diminished Majority: From a towering 303 seats in 2019 and an absolute majority of 282 in 2014, the drop to 240 is the central narrative of this election. It signals a clear message from the electorate: a desire for continuity, but with checks and balances.
2. The Resurgence of the Congress: Crossing the 100-seat mark (including allies) for the first time since 2014, the Congress party is no longer on political life support. Its 99 seats provide it with the legitimacy to lead the opposition and claim the Leader of Opposition post in the Lok Sabha, a position that had been vacant for a decade.
3. The Return of the Kingmakers: The stellar performances of allies like the TDP (16 seats) and JD(U) (12 seats) have placed them in an incredibly powerful position. The era of a “one-party dominant system” appears to be paused, and the politics of negotiation and compromise are back.

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The Regional Mosaic: A State-by-State Dissection of the Verdict

India does not vote as a monolith. It votes as 28 states and 8 union territories, each with its own unique set of issues, loyalties, and political dynamics. The national result is merely the sum of these intricate regional parts.

1. The Hindi Heartland: The Citadel Cracks

This was the bedrock of the BJP’s previous two massive mandates. In 2024, it witnessed the most significant erosion.

• Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats): The Epicenter of the Earthquake
  • 2019: BJP: 62, SP+BSP: 15, INC: 1
  • 2024: BJP: 33, SP (INDIA bloc): 37, INC: 6
  • Analysis: This is the single biggest shock of the election. The BJP’s fortress, built on a combination of Hindutva, welfare schemes, and the persona of PM Modi, crumbled. The Samajwadi Party, under Akhilesh Yadav, ran a masterful social engineering campaign, consolidating a formidable coalition of Muslims, Yadavs, and a significant section of Most Backward Classes (MBCs) and Dalits. Issues like unemployment, inflation, and the perceived neglect of farmers cut through the BJP’s narrative. The Ayodhya Ram Mandir, expected to be a game-changer, failed to deliver the anticipated sweep, suggesting that devotional fervor has its limits against pressing bread-and-butter concerns.
• Rajasthan (25 Seats): A Close Contest
  • 2019: BJP: 24, INC: 0
  • 2024: BJP: 14, INC: 8
  • Analysis: The Congress, which had lost the state assembly elections just months ago, managed to stage a strong comeback. Internal dissent within the BJP state unit and persistent issues of paper leaks, farmer distress, and inflation cost the party dearly.
• Haryana (10 Seats): The Farmer Anger Erupts
  • 2019: BJP: 10, INC: 0
  • 2024: BJP: 5, INC: 5
  • Analysis: The year-long farmers’ protest, led predominantly by Jats from Haryana, had a direct political consequence. The BJP lost all five seats in the Jat-dominated belt. The Congress capitalized on this agrarian anger effectively.
• Bihar (40 Seats): The Alliance Arithmetic Prevails
  • 2019: NDA (BJP+JD(U)+LJP): 39, Mahagathbandhan: 1
  • 2024: NDA (BJP+JD(U)+LJP(RV)): 30, INDIA (RJD+INC+Left): 9
  • Analysis: While the NDA held its ground, the INDIA bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD, put up a strong fight. Tejashwi’s relentless focus on “jobs and justice” resonated with the youth. The JD(U)’s strong performance (12 seats) makes Nitish Kumar a pivotal figure in the new government.

2. The East: A Mixed Bag

• West Bengal (42 Seats): The Fortress Holds, but with Cracks
  • 2019: BJP: 18, AITC: 22
  • 2024: BJP: 12, AITC: 29
  • Analysis: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress put up a stellar performance, increasing its tally and decisively halting the BJP’s march in the state. The BJP’s aggressive campaign, centered on “Sonar Bangla” and corruption allegations, backfired. The TMC’s deep-rooted organizational strength and welfare schemes proved too strong. However, the BJP remains the principal opposition.
• Odisha (21 Seats): A Double Whammy
  • 2019: BJD: 12, BJP: 8
  • 2024 (Lok Sabha): BJP: 20, BJD: 0, INC: 1
  • Analysis: In a stunning result, the BJP decimated Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), sweeping 20 Lok Sabha seats. Simultaneously, it also won the state assembly elections, ending Patnaik’s 24-year reign. This was a result of strong anti-incumbency, a perception of a weakening administration, and a highly effective BJP campaign.

3. The South: The Unbreachable Wall

The South remained largely impervious to the BJP’s influence, with one major exception.

• Telangana (17 Seats): Congress’s Southern Surge
  • 2019: TRS (BRS): 9, BJP: 4, INC: 3
  • 2024: INC: 8, BJP: 0
  • Analysis: Riding high on its state assembly victory, the Congress dominated the Lok Sabha polls, nearly sweeping the state and reducing the BJP to zero. This consolidates the Congress’s position in the South.
• Karnataka (28 Seats): A Reversal of Fortunes
  • 2019: BJP: 25, INC: 1
  • 2024: INC: 9, BJP: 17
  • Analysis: The Congress, which governs the state, improved its tally significantly, capitalizing on the implementation of its “five guarantees” welfare schemes. However, the BJP still managed to hold on to a majority of seats, showcasing its enduring base in the state.
• Andhra Pradesh (25 Seats): The TDP Tsunami
  • 2019: YSRCP: 22, TDP: 3
  • 2024: TDP: 16, YSRCP: 4
  • Analysis: N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, in alliance with the BJP and Pawan Kalyan’s JSP, delivered a landslide victory, decimating Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP. This result was driven by massive anti-incumbency against the YSRCP government. Naidu’s return to the national stage as a key NDA ally makes him one of the most powerful political kingmakers.
• Tamil Nadu (39 Seats) & Kerala (20 Seats): The INDIA Sweep
  • As expected, the INDIA bloc, led by the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the Congress in Kerala, swept all seats in these two states. The BJP’s attempts to make inroads here failed completely.

4. The West & The North:

• Maharashtra (48 Seats): The Split Verdict
  • 2019: BJP+Shiv Sena (Undivided): 41
  • 2024: NDA (BJP+Shiv Sena(Shinde)+NCP(Ajit)): 17, INDIA (Congress+Shiv Sena(UBT)+NCP(SP)): 30
  • Analysis: The INDIA bloc, comprising the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, outperformed expectations. The split in the Shiv Sena and NCP, engineered by the BJP, did not yield the desired electoral dividend. Issues of Maratha and OBC reservation, and a sympathy wave for Uddhav Thackeray, worked in the opposition’s favor.
• Delhi (7 Seats): A Clean Sweep for the INDIA Bloc
  • In a major upset, the Congress-AAP alliance swept all seven seats in the national capital. The BJP’s campaign, centered around the arrest of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, seems to have boomeranged, with voters perceiving it as an overreach.

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The “Why”: Deciphering the Voter’s Mind

What caused this dramatic shift? Why did a seemingly invincible political machine stumble? The answers lie in a complex interplay of factors.

1. The Aayega To Modi (Modi Will Come Anyway) Syndrome:
A sense of complacency may have crept into a section of the BJP’s support base. The belief that the party was destined for a massive victory might have suppressed turnout among its core voters, while simultaneously galvanizing the opposition voters who felt this was a “now or never” election.

2. The Agnipath Scheme and Youth Anger:
The short-term military recruitment scheme, Agnipath, created deep-seated anxiety and anger among the youth, a key demographic that had previously supported the BJP. This was particularly potent in states like Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, where government jobs are highly coveted.

3. Agrarian Distress:
Despite numerous welfare schemes, underlying agrarian distress persisted. Issues of inadequate Minimum Support Price (MSP), rising input costs, and the fallout of the now-repealed farm laws continued to simmer, erupting decisively at the ballot box in the agrarian belts of Punjab, Haryana, and western UP.

4. Inflation and Economic Anxiety:
While macroeconomic indicators were strong, the ground-level reality of price rise, especially in food and fuel, pinched the common household. This “K-shaped” economic recovery, where the formal sector boomed while the informal sector struggled, created a disconnect between headline GDP numbers and lived experiences.

5. The Resurgence of Caste Calculus:
The BJP’s broad “Hindu umbrella” coalition showed signs of strain. The opposition successfully leveraged the demand for a caste census to rally Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits. In Uttar Pradesh, the SP’s “PDA” (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak – Backward, Dalit, Minority) coalition was a textbook example of successful social engineering.

6. Over-reliance on the Leadership Narrative:
The BJP’s campaign was overwhelmingly centered on Prime Minister Modi’s leadership. While he remains India’s most popular leader, the election demonstrated that his charisma alone could not override pressing local issues and anti-incumbency against sitting MPs.

7. A Cohesive and Strategic Opposition:
For the first time in a decade, the opposition presented a relatively united front. Strategic seat-sharing agreements, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, prevented the splitting of anti-BJP votes. Their campaign, focused on “Constitution Bachao” (Save the Constitution), unemployment, and social justice, found a receptive audience.

8. The Limits of the Religious Narrative:
The inauguration of the Ram Mandir was a historic and emotive event. However, the results in Uttar Pradesh suggest that while faith is a powerful force, it may not be sufficient to override everyday economic struggles. The electorate demonstrated a remarkable ability to separate devotional life from political choice.

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The Key Players: Winners, Losers, and Kingmakers

The Winners:

• Narendra Modi: Becomes only the second Prime Minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win a third consecutive term. While the victory is diminished, his personal stature ensures he remains the central figure in Indian politics.
• Rahul Gandhi & the Congress: This election marks the political rehabilitation of Rahul Gandhi. His Bharat Jodo Yatra and relentless focus on social justice, unemployment, and crony capitalism provided the Congress with a coherent narrative. The party is no longer in terminal decline.
• Akhilesh Yadav: The undisputed star of the opposition. His strategic maneuvering in UP has resurrected the Samajwadi Party and made him a national-level leader.
• N. Chandrababu Naidu & Nitish Kumar: The original masters of coalition politics are back with a bang. Their support is crucial for the NDA government, giving them immense bargaining power.

The Losers:

• The BJP’s Unchecked Dominance: The idea of a “Congress-mukt Bharat” (Congress-free India) and a hegemonic BJP has been put to rest. The party must now return to the negotiating table with allies.
• Jagan Mohan Reddy: Suffered a catastrophic defeat in Andhra Pradesh, losing both the state and the Lok Sabha polls.
• Naveen Patnaik: A five-term Chief Minister’s legacy was ended decisively by the BJP in Odisha.
• Arrogance and Complacency: The biggest loser was any sense of political invincibility.

The Kingmakers:

• Chandrababu Naidu (TDP): With 16 MPs, his demands for special category status for Andhra Pradesh and key ministerial berths will be hard for the BJP to ignore.
• Nitish Kumar (JD(U)): The quintessential weathervane of Indian politics is in a position of power once again. His support is critical for the NDA’s survival.

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The Road Ahead: Implications for India’s Future

The 2024 verdict has set the stage for a new, and potentially volatile, political era.

1. The Return of Coalition Governance:
After a decade of majoritarian government, India is back to the politics of consensus and compromise. The BJP will have to accommodate the demands of its allies, making the government more federal in its character. This could lead to a more deliberative and less centralized style of governance.

2. A Strengthened and Legitimate Opposition:
With over 230 seats, the INDIA bloc is a formidable force in the Lok Sabha. It can effectively hold the government accountable, disrupt legislative agendas, and use parliamentary tools like committees to investigate the executive. The presence of a strong Leader of Opposition will revitalize parliamentary democracy.

3. Policy Paralysis or Course Correction?
A critical question is whether a coalition-dependent government will lead to policy paralysis. However, it could also force a course correction. We may see a greater focus on consensus-building on contentious issues like labor laws, agricultural reforms, and Uniform Civil Code. Welfare schemes and economic policies that address regional disparities might get more emphasis.

4. The Battle for 2029 Begins Now:
This election has redrawn the political map. The BJP’s mission will be to win back the heartland it lost, while the opposition will aim to consolidate its gains and expand into new territories. The next five years will be a continuous campaign.

5. The Triumph of Indian Democracy:
Ultimately, the 2024 election is a testament to the resilience of Indian democracy. It proved that no leader or party is too big to be humbled by the voter. It demonstrated that the electorate is sophisticated, demanding, and capable of delivering a nuanced verdict that balances stability with accountability.

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Conclusion: The Mandate for Moderation

The answer to “चुनाव 2024 कौन जीता?” is multifaceted. The BJP won the right to govern. The opposition won the right to be heard. Regional parties won the power to influence. And the Indian voter won back their sovereignty.

This is not a mandate for radical change, nor is it an endorsement of the status quo. It is a mandate for moderation, for balance, for a government that is strong but not unchallenged, and for an opposition that is vigorous but not obstructive. The era of “400-paar” (crossing 400 seats) is over; the era of “Accountability-paar” has begun.

India has spoken. It has asked for a third term for Narendra Modi, but with a crucial caveat: it must be a term of consultation, not command. As the world’s largest democracy navigates this new chapter, one thing is certain: the voice of the people, in all its complexity, has been heard loud and clear. The churning of Indian democracy continues, as vibrant and unpredictable as ever.